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A simulated 10 MW/20 MWh standalone battery in Germany earned €25,300 per MW in August using Suena Energy’s forecast-based cross-market optimization, 10% more than in July. Results varied across individual markets: FCR led standalone strategies, while positive aFRR and wholesale revenues weakened. The figures are modeled earnings, and the report does not provide realized operating results.
A forecast-based, cross-market strategy produced simulated earnings of €25,300 per MW for a representative 10 MW/20 MWh battery in Germany in August, according to a report by Suena Energy CEO and co-founder Lennard Wilkening. The result was 10% higher than in July, as rising electricity prices and changing renewable output shifted opportunities across wholesale and ancillary service markets.
The report compared individual trading strategies with Suena’s optimization approach for a simulated Grey Standalone Storage system. Continuous intraday trading was the strongest individual wholesale strategy, at €12,900/MW for the month, down about 10% from July. Day-ahead trading earned €10,800/MW, intraday auctions €10,500/MW, and a stacked wholesale strategy €15,400/MW. Each was below its July result.
Ancillary service outcomes differed. Frequency containment reserve (FCR) was the strongest individual strategy overall at €15,300/MW. Negative automatic frequency restoration reserve (aFRR) reached €14,000/MW, while positive aFRR fell to €5,600/MW. A stacked aFRR strategy earned €9,800/MW, and aFRR energy revenues were about €800/MW. Suena said its cross-market result was 63% above the combined wholesale benchmark and 65% above FCR.
Average German day-ahead electricity prices exceeded €126/MWh, about €20/MWh above July and roughly €50/MWh above August 2025. Prices below zero occurred for 55 hours, down from 79 hours in July. Renewables supplied roughly 70% of electricity generation, marginally less than in July, according to the report.
Why Cross-Market Earnings Pulled Ahead
The results illustrate why a higher average electricity price does not guarantee higher earnings for every battery strategy. Revenues depend on when prices rise and fall, the services a battery can provide, and how quickly a trader responds to changing conditions. In August, wholesale prices rose overall, but several wholesale strategy results declined from July. FCR led the standalone strategies, and negative aFRR improved while positive aFRR weakened.
For operators and investors, the modeled difference points to the value Suena assigns to choosing between markets as conditions change. Its reported €25,300/MW result exceeded the strongest individual strategy, but the figures describe a simulation for a representative asset. They do not establish what every battery earned in live trading, or what a particular project will earn after its own costs and operating limits.
August’s Shifting Price Patterns
Suena attributed higher day-ahead prices in part to higher gas prices and tighter supply in neighboring markets, including France and Poland. High temperatures, elevated demand and water-related constraints temporarily reduced electricity available for export to Germany, the report said. These are the report’s explanations for the market conditions; it does not quantify each factor’s individual contribution to prices.
Strong solar generation continued to create charging opportunities during the day. At the same time, shorter daylight hours began to push the decline in solar output earlier, while demand remained elevated in the late afternoon and early evening. The report said this made the difference between lower-priced midday hours and higher-priced evenings more pronounced. Negative day-ahead prices remained concentrated around midday, but occurred less often than in July.
Events on Aug. 12 and Aug. 28 showed how predictability can matter. A partial solar eclipse temporarily reduced photovoltaic generation on Aug. 12, but its effects were predictable. On Aug. 28, weaker-than-forecast solar and wind output created a renewable shortfall of more than 10 GW around midday, the report said. Intraday hourly prices reached about €500/MWh, with individual quarter-hours exceeding €3,000/MWh.
What the Simulation Leaves Open
The report presents simulated earnings for one representative battery configuration, not audited revenues from a named operating asset. It does not provide a full account of assumptions, fees, degradation, financing, or other project-specific costs in the supplied material. The reported monthly values therefore cannot be treated as guaranteed net income or directly applied to every battery.
The report also does not quantify how much of the simulated advantage came from individual market decisions, forecast accuracy or other elements of the optimization method. The relative influence of gas prices, neighboring supply constraints and weather on August’s price movements is not broken down. Actual autumn market conditions and battery revenues remain uncertain.
Autumn Brings New Trading Conditions
The report expects shorter daylight hours to reshape intraday price patterns as summer gives way to autumn. Changing weather could add uncertainty to renewable generation, while the timing of evening demand and solar output will continue to affect available trading opportunities. These are forward-looking expectations in the report, not confirmed outcomes for the coming months.
Suena’s stated takeaway for battery operators is to combine forecasting with flexible market participation as conditions change. The next useful comparison will be whether the autumn price profile and service-market revenues sustain the August pattern, and how simulated results compare with realized returns. The report does not give a date for a follow-up analysis.
Key Questions
How much did the modeled battery earn in August?
Suena reported simulated earnings of €25,300 per MW for the month for a representative 10 MW/20 MWh battery using cross-market optimization. The figure is a simulation, not a reported payout to a specific battery owner.
Which individual strategy performed best?
FCR earned €15,300/MW, making it the strongest individual strategy in the report. Continuous intraday trading was the strongest individual wholesale strategy, at €12,900/MW.
Why did negative aFRR improve?
The report linked stronger negative aFRR revenues to less frequent periods of renewable oversupply and a greater relative need for downward regulation. It did not quantify how much each market factor contributed.
Did the August price rise lift every battery strategy?
No. Although the average day-ahead price rose to more than €126/MWh, several wholesale strategy revenues declined from July, and positive aFRR fell to €5,600/MW. Results varied by market and strategy.
Are these figures actual battery owner revenues?
The report describes simulated earnings for a representative system. It does not identify the results as realized revenues from a specific operating project or provide a complete accounting of project costs.
Source: rss
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