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The Home Improvement Research Institute’s 2026 Summit, held Sept. 29-30 in Minneapolis, examined economic conditions, customer behavior, AI and home improvement spending. HIRI reported a forecast of 2.5% market growth in current dollars for 2026, but a 1.5% decline after inflation.
The Home Improvement Research Institute’s 2026 Home Improvement Insights Summit convened industry leaders in Minneapolis on Sept. 29-30 to examine economic conditions, AI’s role in renovation decisions and the outlook for home improvement spending. HIRI’s forecast, presented at the summit, projects the market will grow 2.5% in current dollars in 2026, while declining 1.5% after inflation.
The summit’s sessions covered five themes: macroeconomics, the customer journey, data and market research, project spending, and sales channels. Speakers addressed the factors influencing homebuilding and homebuying, including inflation, affordability, mortgage rates and income. Danushka Nanayakkara-Skillington, assistant vice president for forecasting and analysis at the National Association of Home Builders, said the median age of a first-time homebuyer has reached 40, compared with 29 in 1981.
HIRI’s Dave King joined Ralph McLaughlin, chief economist at OpenBrand, and Michael Zdinak, director at S&P Global, for a discussion of conditions facing buyers. Other sessions looked at how customers choose projects and products, including the roles of home improvement professionals and AI in shaping recommendations and preferences.
Grant Farnsworth, president of The Farnsworth Group, presented results from HIRI and the group’s Q2 2026 Quarterly Contractor Business Sentiment Tracker and the Farnsworth Contractor Index for Q3. The index put contractors’ confidence in securing business over the next six months at 8.2 out of 10. The summit also featured Kevin O’Connor, host of This Old House, on the brand’s approach to maintaining trust through education and avoiding a transactional tone.
Inflation Changes the Market Picture
The difference between growth in current dollars and a decline after inflation gives businesses two distinct ways to read the market. HIRI’s forecast of 2.5% nominal growth does not mean purchasing power or real market activity is increasing: the same forecast puts the market 1.5% lower after inflation. That distinction matters to manufacturers and retailers planning products, inventory and sales expectations for 2026.
Customer behavior is another practical concern. Houzz research presented by senior vice president of marketing Liza Hausman found that 22% of homeowners use AI for renovation, and that 25% of renovation dollars are in households that use AI to help. The figures suggest AI already reaches some renovation decisions, but they do not establish that AI caused higher spending or improved project outcomes. For companies, the findings point to a need to understand how customers use these tools alongside advice from professionals.
Contractor confidence provides a further indicator for businesses serving the professional channel. An 8.2 out of 10 score for confidence in securing work over the next six months reflects the index’s reported sentiment, not a guarantee that contractors will obtain that business. Taken together, the summit’s data gives industry participants indicators to weigh, rather than a single prediction of demand.
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Five Themes Framed the Summit
HIRI’s annual summit brought together home improvement leaders and professionals to discuss industry data. The 2026 program connected broad economic conditions to choices made by homeowners, contractors and businesses. Its five themes ranged from macroeconomic pressures and spending to research methods and sales channels, giving sessions a focus on both consumer demand and how the industry reaches customers.
The presentations included findings from several organizations, not just HIRI. The first session featured NAHB’s Nanayakkara-Skillington on economic factors affecting homebuilding and homebuying. Farnsworth presented contractor tracking work, while Hausman shared Houzz research on homeowner use of AI. HIRI’s forecast, cited by King, placed the outlook for 2026 alongside a message for manufacturers: reduce uncertainty in customers’ decisions in the coming quarter.
O’Connor’s appearance added a discussion of trust and the role of educational content. He described how This Old House seeks to remain relevant by educating audiences, being accurate and avoiding a transactional approach. That perspective complemented the summit’s data-heavy sessions by addressing how customers assess information and recommendations.
“Pro confidence in getting business in the next six months was 8.2 out of 10 on the Q3 2026 Farnsworth Contractor Index.”
— Grant Farnsworth, president of The Farnsworth Group
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Limits of the Reported Figures
The summit recap does not provide detailed methods, sample sizes or confidence intervals for the contractor index or the Houzz AI findings. The reported 8.2 score is a measure of contractor confidence, not a count of contracts or a forecast of completed work. The AI statistics likewise do not show how often homeowners use AI, which tools they use, or whether it changes project costs or results.
The market forecast is stated in current dollars and after inflation, but the recap does not identify the inflation measure, the forecast’s assumptions or its comparison period. It also does not give a separate breakdown of expected performance by product category, region or sales channel. Those details would be needed to assess how the broad forecast applies to individual businesses.
The source reports that the summit addressed affordability, mortgage rates and income, but gives no specific figures for those measures. It is also unclear from the recap whether HIRI has revised its forecast since the summit or how the economic conditions discussed will affect actual spending through the end of 2026.
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Data to Watch Into 2027
HIRI’s near-term message to manufacturers was to reduce uncertainty for customers in the coming quarter. Businesses will be watching whether the reported contractor confidence translates into booked work and whether homeowners continue to use AI as they plan and purchase renovation projects. Those outcomes are not established by the summit presentations alone.
The next relevant indicators are updated market forecasts, contractor sentiment readings and consumer spending data. HIRI’s recap points to growth in current dollars but a contraction after inflation, leaving the direction of real market activity a central issue as companies plan for 2027. The available report does not specify when HIRI will publish its next forecast or which summit findings will be updated first.
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Key Questions
What was the HIRI 2026 Summit about?
The Sept. 29-30 Minneapolis summit examined macroeconomics, the customer journey, market research, home improvement project spending and sales channels.
What did HIRI forecast for the 2026 home improvement market?
HIRI’s Q3 2026 market report and forecast, cited at the summit, projected 2.5% growth in current dollars and a 1.5% decline after inflation.
What did the summit report about AI and renovation?
Houzz’s 2026 research, presented by Liza Hausman, found that 22% of homeowners use AI for renovation and 25% of renovation dollars are in households that use AI to help. The figures do not show that AI caused spending or improved outcomes.
How confident were contractors about getting work?
The Q3 2026 Farnsworth Contractor Index put contractors’ confidence in securing business over the next six months at 8.2 out of 10. It is a sentiment score, not a guarantee of future contracts.
What remains uncertain after the summit?
The recap does not provide the full methodology behind the reported figures, detailed forecast assumptions or later updates. Actual spending, contractor bookings and the effects of AI on renovation decisions remain to be seen.
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