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U.S. heat pump shipments stayed strong in the first half of 2026 despite the end of the federal tax credit that had offered households up to $2,000 toward eligible systems. A Building Decarbonization Coalition report says the technology is on track to match or exceed its best year, though the full-year shipment tally is not yet available.
U.S. heat pump shipments stayed strong in the first half of 2026, months after the federal tax credit for the systems expired, according to a Building Decarbonization Coalition report. The report says shipments are on pace to match or exceed the technology’s best year, suggesting the loss of the incentive has not yet been followed by a sharp drop in sales across the market.
The coalition’s report draws on shipment data from the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute, a trade group representing most of the U.S. market. The figures cover the first six months of 2026; they do not establish how many systems were ultimately installed or whether demand will hold through the rest of the year.
The federal 25C tax credit had reduced the cost of eligible heat pumps by up to $2,000. It expired at the end of 2025, seven years before the deadline set under the Biden administration, according to the source report. The credit had been one financial support for households considering equipment that can both heat and cool a home.
The shipment figures show that the market has so far continued without that federal incentive. They do not, by themselves, prove why households kept buying heat pumps or establish that the credit had little effect. The report’s projection that 2026 could be a very strong year remains contingent on consumer behavior and the final shipment count.
Demand Holds After Federal Support Ends
The continued strength matters to households weighing replacement systems, contractors and policymakers because it offers an early indication of how the market is responding to the end of a widely available federal incentive. Heat pumps can replace or supplement gas furnaces while also providing cooling, so demand affects both home equipment choices and efforts to reduce building emissions.
But the data should not be read as proof that the credit was unnecessary. Shipments reflect equipment moving through the market, not a direct count of purchases that would or would not have happened without the subsidy. Nor do the figures isolate the effects of the tax credit from other influences, including local incentives, electricity prices, climate and contractor familiarity.
If the full-year tally remains strong, it could suggest that other drivers are sustaining adoption even as the upfront price for some buyers rises. If shipments weaken later in the year, that would offer a more complicated picture than the first-half data alone.
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The $2,000 Credit Ended Early
The 25C credit lowered the cost of eligible home-efficiency improvements, including heat pumps, by as much as $2,000. The source report says the program ended on Dec. 31, 2025, seven years earlier than the deadline established by the Biden administration. The change came as federal support for several clean-energy technologies, including rooftop solar and batteries, was also withdrawn.
Some support remains available outside the federal program. The source report says households in certain areas can still access state and utility incentives, while local governments continue to adopt ordinances encouraging a shift away from fossil-fuel heating. Contractors have also gained experience installing and explaining heat pumps, according to the report.
Those factors may help explain why shipments have held up, but the available data does not quantify how much each one contributes. The first-half figures are a market snapshot, not a causal study of the tax credit’s impact.
““I suspect most households adopted heat pumps without ever knowing anything about the credit, or didn’t learn about the tax credit until months later when filing their taxes.””
— Lucas Davis, a business professor at the University of California, Berkeley
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Full-Year Demand Is Still Unknown
The report covers the first half of 2026, and the final shipment count has not been released. It is not yet clear whether the pace will continue through the end of the year, how shipments compare with the same period in previous years, or how much of the activity reflects purchases made before the tax credit expired.
The data also cannot show whether buyers would have made the same decisions if the credit had remained available. The source material does not provide a detailed breakdown by state, equipment type, household income or incentive eligibility. For now, claims that the credit did not drive adoption remain explanations, not findings established by the shipment figures.
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Final 2026 Shipment Tally
The next key milestone is the full-year 2026 shipment total. That count will show whether the market maintained its first-half pace and whether the year matched or exceeded the previous high. The source report says readers should watch for the final tally, but does not give a release date.
Further data would be needed to explain the result, including comparisons with earlier years and information on regional incentives and sales. Until then, the confirmed takeaway is limited: shipments were strong in the first half, and the impact of losing the federal credit on the full-year market remains unresolved.
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Key Questions
What happened to the federal heat pump tax credit?
The 25C credit, which could reduce the cost of an eligible heat pump by up to $2,000, expired at the end of 2025, according to the source report.
Did heat pump shipments fall after the credit ended?
The Building Decarbonization Coalition report says shipments stayed strong in the first half of 2026. The full-year total is not yet available, so the longer-term effect remains unclear.
Does the shipment data prove the tax credit did not matter?
No. The data shows shipment activity, but it does not establish what caused households to buy heat pumps or what they would have done if the credit had continued.
Can households still get heat pump incentives?
Some households may qualify for state or utility incentives, according to the source report. Availability varies by location; the report does not provide a complete list of programs.
Source: rss
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